Callahan, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS66 KMFR 121824
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1124 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...12/18 TAFs...VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals throughout the valid TAF period with one caveat along/near
the coast. Smoke is still present in parts of the Rogue Valley.

Northwest winds will become breezy this afternoon. A return to
MVFR/IFR conditions is forecast for the coast tonight while winds
begin to weaken.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue today with a
  Red Flag warning in effect for Modoc, southwest Klamath, and
  southwest Lake counties for enhanced winds coupled with low RH.

* Thunderstorm chances increase Monday and Tuesday for mainly
  eastside areas and northern California, but cannot rule out some
  activity across Jackson County. Main threats are lightning and
  strong outflow gusts.

* Thunderstorm risk could linger into Wednesday, but chances are
  less than Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...

High pressure at 500mb is noted east of the forecast area as of
writing this. We also have a 500mb trough/closed low entering the
British Columbia area which is placing southwesterly flow over the
forecast area. Also of note is another area of low pressure on the
southwestern extent of the main trough mentioned above. Models do
try to cut-off this southwestern extent later today. Ultimately,
this pattern will lead to southwesterly flow aloft through at
least Wednesday. Thereafter, the pattern starts to become out of
phase as models differ in the handling of the trough over British
Columbia, so there is uncertainty beyond Wednesday.

This pattern will lead to another breezy afternoon coupled with low
RH. Critical fire weather conditions continue across southeastern
portions of the forecast area where a Red Flag Warning remains in
place. That said, we will see overall improved conditions compared
to yesterday`s peak fire weather conditions.

Attention then turns to the thunderstorm potential early to
middle of next week. For Monday, we will start to see the
monsoonal moisture start to pump into the PacNW. That said, we are
lacking some of the better upper level dynamics, and we may end
up with most of the activity to the southeast and east of the
forecast area. Cannot rule out a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms on Monday for eastside areas. On Tuesday,
upper levels dynamics will be better with the upper trough edging
closer to shore and an jet streak over the forecast area. CAPE is
modest around a couple hundred J/kg to upwards near 500 J/kg. Any
storm that forms will have the potential for strong outflow gusts
around 45mph in addition to lightning. The lightning over dry
fuels could become an issue, and we may need to consider Red Flag
Warnings for this threat. On Wednesday, we will see less CAPE and
less overall moisture, so thunderstorm chances will decrease on
Wednesday. Overall, Tuesday will have the greatest threat for
thunderstorms, but the chances Mon-Wed are not overly high any of
these days given the weak setup for our area.

Beyond middle of the week, the upper level pattern differs between
models and this is leading to little overall confidence in the
details. We could see high temperatures trend toward the triple
digits by Friday and continue through the weekend. There doesn`t
appear to be any strong signal for precipitation later in the week.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

IFR and LIFR is expected to develop at the coast late tonight and
early Sunday morning, with gradual clearing expected 15-18z.
Inland, IFR ceilings are expected to develop in the Umpqua,
including at Roseburg (KRBG), late tonight into early Sunday
morning (10-16z), with clearing to VFR between 16-18z.

All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. However,
Medford (KMFR) may see periods of reduced visibilities with areas
of smoke spreading into the area. Fire activity will continue to
be monitored, but for now it is impacting areas to the north of
Medford most. Gusty winds are expected area wide again Sunday
afternoon and evening, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30
mph).

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, July 12, 2026...Gusty north
winds south of Cape Blanco will bring conditions hazardous to small
craft through Sunday morning. Starting late Sunday morning, steep
seas spread north of Cape Blanco as northerly winds strengthen.
Conditions improve Monday afternoon, but areas of steep seas and
borderline advisory winds may persist into mid-week for areas south
of Port Orford.

FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 300 AM Sunday, July 12,
2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue through
today, with a Red Flag Warning in place for southeast portions of
the forecast area.

Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the
afternoons and evening continue across northern California and
eastside areas. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low
teens today coupled with gusty winds. This will result in critical
fire weather conditions across Modoc county and southeastern
portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today.

Thunderstorms are possible through the first half of the week as
monsoonal moisture pumps into the region. There is currently a
slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in
southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and
eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher
chance for thunderstorms which could result in lightning over dry
fuels for northern California and eastside areas. While chances
continue into Wednesday, the overall threat will be lower when
compared to Tuesday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$